A new poll by Data for Progress suggests that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds a significant lead over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a potential 2028 Democratic Senate primary in New York.
The survey, conducted from March 26 to March 31 among 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York, showed Ocasio-Cortez receiving 55% support compared to Schumer’s 36%. The remaining respondents were undecided or declined to answer.
The poll also measured favorability ratings of several political figures. Among those tested, Schumer received the highest disapproval rating, while Ocasio-Cortez ranked among the most favorable, behind Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren.
Demographic breakdowns showed Ocasio-Cortez leading by a wide margin among voters under 45 and maintaining an advantage among older voters as well. She also outperformed Schumer across most racial and educational groups, with Schumer holding a lead only among self-identified moderates.
Respondents were shown biographical summaries of each candidate, which positively influenced favorability ratings for both. Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability increased from +59 to +69 after the summaries, while Schumer’s rose from +26 to +47. However, the increased favorability did not substantially affect the head-to-head matchup.
The survey also tested messaging effects. Criticisms aimed at Ocasio-Cortez had minimal impact, shifting opinions by only a small percentage. In contrast, critiques of Schumer as a long-serving politician with ties to corporate interests were viewed as “very concerning” by about one-third of respondents.
Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress, noted that the results indicate a desire among many voters for more assertive leadership and new voices.
While Ocasio-Cortez has not announced a Senate bid, the data suggests she could be a strong contender should she decide to enter the 2028 race.
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