A recent poll conducted by Data for Progress shows that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) holds a significant lead over Senator Chuck Schumer in a potential 2028 Democratic primary matchup for the U.S. Senate seat in New York.
The survey, conducted between March 26 and 31 among 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York, found that 55% would support Ocasio-Cortez, compared to 36% for Schumer. The results indicate a possible shift in voter preference within the Democratic base, particularly among younger and more progressive voters.
According to the poll, Ocasio-Cortez performs well across a wide range of demographic groups, including voters under 45, voters of color, and those with varying education levels. Schumer’s strongest support comes from self-identified moderates.
After being shown summaries of each candidate’s background and political record, Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability rating increased from +59 to +69. Schumer’s rating also improved—from +26 to +47—but it wasn’t enough to close the gap in the head-to-head match-up.
Even when presented with critical messaging about both candidates, voter preferences remained largely unchanged. For example, a statement describing Ocasio-Cortez as a polarizing figure influenced only a small percentage of respondents. On the other hand, one-third of voters expressed concern about Schumer’s long tenure in politics and perceived ties to corporate interests.
This poll comes at a time when Democratic voters in the survey expressed a general desire for stronger responses to national political developments. Many respondents indicated they want leaders who take a more active and visible role in advocating for their concerns.
While Ocasio-Cortez has not announced plans to run for Senate in 2028, the data suggest she would be a formidable challenger if she enters the race. Analysts note that her broad appeal among younger and more progressive voters may present a challenge for more established incumbents.
Political observers emphasize that these early numbers are not definitive forecasts, but rather a reflection of current sentiment within one segment of the Democratic electorate.
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